Overtime thoughts

Writing this when the regular season has not even ended, and the Maple Leafs just clinched a playoff appearance for the ninth straight year, feels wrong, but it can’t hurt to look ahead. As of now, they have 16 players signed for next season, getting paid a total of $68,014,769. This leaves them with just over 27 million dollars to sign three top-six forwards, two bottom-six forwards, and a depth-defenceman. 

From what has been said throughout this season, it sounds like management is waiting to see what their number one priority, Mitch Marner, decides to do. If he chooses to take a bit of a discount and settle for a contract in the $12.5-13 million dollar range, he most likely will remain a Maple Leaf, but if he chooses to test free agency, there is a team out there that will give Marner 14 million or more a year. Once we have more clarity on this situation, it will be much easier to predict what the rest of the offseason will look like. What everyone keeps saying is that whether Mitch Marner re-signs all comes down to how far they get in the playoffs. From what I have been seeing, a first-round exit most likely means it is over for him, but making it to the Conference finals might be enough to run it back.

The two other big question marks are Matthew Knies and former captain John Tavares. Unlike the Tavares situation, the Knies contract is a matter of when, not if. Knies is in the last year of his entry-level contract, meaning that after this season, he becomes a restricted free agent. This means that the player can only negotiate with the team that drafted him, compared to an unrestricted free agent who can talk to every team. If Knies and the Leafs can’t settle on a deal before December 1 ( this won’t happen; I believe a deal will get done early in the offseason), he will not be able to play the remainder of that season. My guess is that Knies will look for a bridge deal in the four to five-year range to sign a long-term deal on his next contract since who knows how high the salary cap will be five years from now.

Next up, John Tavares. The 34-year-old is one of the bright spots of this season, showing no signs of slowing down (offensively, although it is no secret he has lost a step speed-wise) as he’s on pace for 43 goals and 84 points, just over a point per game. When he signed a seven-year, $ 77-million deal with the Leafs on July 1, 2018, I don’t think many people thought he’d be a point-per-game player in the last year of that deal. At the start of the season, many people were picturing Tavares signing a 5-6 million dollar deal (hometown discount) to stay with the team, but in my opinion, he has outplayed that contract. I believe whether he is a Maple Leaf at the start of the 2025-2026 season is completely up to him because if he wants his next deal to be in the 7+ million a year, a team will give him that, but I doubt it will be the Leafs. My guess is that he likes playing for his hometown team and wants to win a Stanley Cup, which is why I believe he will leave some money on the table.

The two Other restricted free agents in need of a contract are forwards Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg. Most likely, they both get signed and fill some of the bottom six spots in the lineup. Robertson asked for a trade before the season started, but General Manager Brad Treliving denied his request, saying We have the leverage, we don’t have to trade you. His role is more or less the same as last year, with him being in and out of the lineup, making me wonder if they will eventually move on from him. 

One bright spot of this Leafs lineup is that they will not have to spend much money on anything other than forwards because they have both goaltenders and seven defencemen signed for at least another season. It is a pretty good feeling knowing that next season they will have the same defence as this year because they can keep building off of each other, and it is the best defence core in the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era.

Is there a world where the Maple Leafs start next season without both Marner and Tavares? The answer is yes, and that would mean that they would look like a completely different hockey team. I think it is more likely that they both come back rather than both leave. After signing Knies and a bottom-six forward like Holmberg, they will likely have around 18 to 19 million left, but will that be enough to keep both of them around?